Assad's forces move east

It looks like my earlier predictions were right after all.

The next big push by the Syrian Arab Army is headed for Deir Ez-Zor, the city which has been besieged for the last 3 years by ISIS. It is the Syrian city farthest to the east, and is currently separated by ISIS-controlled desert.

While an attack on Raqqa or Idlib would be perhaps easier geographically for Assad's forces, financially speaking, driving east has serious benefits; the main one is oil and gas in Homs and Deir Ez-Zor provinces. Once Assad liberate those provinces from ISIS, the terror state will be enormously crippled.

The benefit of gaining ground in Deir Ez-Zor is akin to the benefit of controlling the city of Aleppo: Syria would be unable to be divided by foreign powers. Had Aleppo fallen to the rebels, a second country may have been formed - with Aleppo retaken by Assad, there is a possible backup plan by western powers to divide Syria east from west. Taking back Deir Ez-Zor would destroy that idea entirely.

Taking back Deir Ez-Zor would give Assad more legitimacy in controlling Syria, as he would then control the majority of Syrian territory and resources. He is currently solidifying control of Palmyra, and preparing the way for the big push east through the Homs province and towards Deir Ez-Zor. I believe this coming stage of the conflict will see enormous progress on destroying ISIS in Syria and ending the civil war.

Is a rift forming between Turkey and the US?

Is a rift forming between Turkey and the US? Of course there is. But this rift did not start with Trump - it can be traced back to the Obama years.

In the Obama years, Turkey put itself on the line by funding and training jihadists to fight against the Syrian Government. Due to a sequence of events, the Turkish project completely failed.

Turkey wanted a Muslim Brotherhood state in Syria as it wants in Libya. But Obama refused to intervene militarily against Assad and, as long as Obama was unwilling to do that and Russia was, Assad would never be overthrown.

What made things even worse for Turkey was Obama's entry into the Syrian Civil War against ISIS. This weakened the Opposition considerably, as most of the Opposition's territory, having fallen to ISIS, ended up in Kurdish hands instead. When Obama waged war on ISIS, he did so using the YPG in Syria, which is a sister organisation to PKK, the Kurdish group which has been warring against Turkey for decades.

Enter Russia. Suddenly there was no way that Turkish-backed rebels were going to oust Assad. Turkey blew up two Russian jets in utter frustration at having so completely lost the Syrian Civil War at all levels.

Not only had Turkey lost a lot more than it gained in Syria, but the Kurds were about to control the entirety of the Syrian-Turkish border. All its efforts resulted in Assad remaining in power, with a likely semi-autonomous Kurdish region in Syria paralleling the one in Iraq. And that Syrian Kurdish region headed by PKK's sister organisation.

So Turkey did the only thing it could do: repair ties with Russia and accept that Assad would stay in power. Russia, unlike America, has a clear vision for Syria: Assad remaining in power to end ISIS' and Al-Qaeda's presence in the country. Turkey got in with Russia, Syria and Iran - and that perhaps with an understanding that Turkey would be allowed to strike the Kurds in Syria.

What happens to the Kurds in Syria is a question up for discussion. Will Assad allow them to remain semi-autonomous? Will they have to give back their land to Assad? Will Turkey, Russia, Assad and Iran turn on the Kurds as part of an arrangement between Turkey and Russia?

With the Syrian Kurds making an assault upon Raqqa as we speak, Trump has cast his lot in with the the Kurds in the fight against ISIS. The result of this is that, once the Syrian Civil War is over, Turkish-American relations are likely to further deteriorate, perhaps to the point of war between the Kurds and the Turks.

If America install a "no-fly-zone" in northern Syria - a possibility - things could get very messy: Syrian Kurds end up semi-autonomous, Syria, Russia and Iran feel outraged, Turkey cuts all ties with America.

I think that, whether war breaks out between Turkey and the Syrian Kurds or not, Turkish-American relations are set to plummet to new depths. It may even cause Turkey to be withdrawn from NATO. It will likely force America to look to its more US-dependent allies - like Iraq and Afghanistan - to fill the void where Turkey used to be.

This will give Trump more reason to prioritize stability in Iraq and Afghanistan: a need for allies in an increasingly anti-American Middle-East.

the Siege of Deir Ez-Zor

The city of Deir Ez-Zor has been besieged for years. It is a city controlled by the Syrian Government, but it is surrounded on all sides by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria.

But the noose of the siege has tightened.

ISIS made stunning gains against Deir Ez-Zor city in January, taking the airport from the government and preventing Russian and Syrian planes from dropping adequate supplies for the besieged population there. While an ISIS takeover of Deir Ez-Zor city is unlikely, the citizens are suffering awfully.

The Syrian Arab Army, as usual, has been fighting in a professional and efficient manner against the barbarians and have been able to hold them off. The airport is almost retaken and the borders between ISIS and the Syrian Government have almost returned to how they were before January.

It is sad to note that both the Obama and Trump Administrations have let ISIS militants escape from Mosul, who have subsequently regrouped in an attack on Deir Ez-Zor city. This has caused unimaginable suffering for the inhabitants of the city - bedouin Sunni Arabs who support Bashar Al-Assad.

But the Syrian Government - backed by Russian airstrikes - is likely to cause another humiliating defeat for ISIS there. It is very unlikely ISIS will be able to take control of Deir Ez-Zor - more likely is that the Syrian Government is going to push out from the city and retake territory surrounding the city, while the main forces of the Syrian Government push east from Palmyra on the road to Deir Ez-Zor.

I think it far more likely that Bashar Al-Assad will liberate the eastern Deir Ez-Zor province before liberating the northern Raqqa province. Raqqa is completely controlled by ISIS and is thus a more difficult target. Deir Ez-Zor, on the other hand, has an enormous amount of oil in the province, and Assad has managed to hold the city for the entirety of the war and in doing so, has prevented Syria from fragmenting into smaller states.

Assad reclaiming Deir Ez-Zor would truly prove that he is able to rule Syria. I wait in eager anticipation for his forces to win this battle against the cockroaches of ISIS.

Independent investigation into Syrian chemical attack supported by US

I have been watching the Press Conference between Lavrov and Tillerson and have heard from Lavrov that there is a willingness on the part of the American government to pursue an independent investigation headed by the UN into the chemical attack in Syria.

The likely benefits and results of such an investigation are likely to be staggering. Should it prove conclusive that the rebels left chemical weapons there, it would force the western world to support Assad against the Syrian rebels.

If this has been Trump's intention all along, it couldn't be more genius: first, it proves that Trump is not a subservient to Russia. Second, it temporarily gives into the neocon outrage of Assad. Third, it will likely prove Assad's innocence, forcing Trump to apologize, and forcing the western world to support Assad against the rebels.

Has this been all staged by America and Russia to get the critics off their backs? Quite possibly. Time will tell, but I am very optimistic.

Trump says "We are not going into Syria"

Phew. That was close.

We received word that Trump launched a missile strike targeting the Syrian airport from which supposed chemical weapons were launched. Never mind they had no proof; Trump wanted to show that with a red line like chemical weapons, he would react.

As of now, he does not want to go into Syria. But should the rebels stage a false flag and convince Trump it was the Syrian Government, America may do another attack. And that is terrifying.

Yet it is reassuring that Trump only struck the airport. He had the element of surprise, and could have very easily struck Bashar Al-Assad's palace. But he didn't. And for that he deserves credit.

However, Trump's Syria policy now looks not much better than Obama's - though, to be fair, it still is better than Obama's. To Trump's credit, he still won't support the Syrian rebels. But while he wants to defeat ISIS, he still wants to keep political pressure on Assad.

The latter policy is disappointing.

What do I think will happen? Assad will stay in power in Syria indefinitely. There is nothing Trump will do to remove him. If another chemical weapons attack happens, there will be a thorough investigation before another strike on Assad.

I do believe that Trump will focus more on the other conflicts in the Middle-East than he will on Syria. He is unlikely to go into Yemen against the Houthis, though he will still go against Al-Qaeda in Yemen. He will also - thankfully - continue to ignore Libya as it falls under Russian influence. He will push for stability in Iraq and in Syria as higher priority for his Administration than Libya, or than regime change in Syria. He will also go back into Afghanistan in full-force after defeating ISIS in Iraq and Syria.

However, Trump will make his safe zones in Syria. And that is probably where his largest danger lies.

How Trump is being misled on Syria

Earlier today, chemical attacks were purportedly used on Syrian civilians by the forces of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad. The more likely option is that the Syrian rebels are getting increasingly desperate due to a lack of victory on the ground and are thus doing all they can to frame the Syrian Government as heartless soldiers who use chemical weapons.

Unfortunately, like Obama and George W. Bush before him, Trump has fallen for the garbage 100%.

As a Trump fan, this is incredibly disappointing. I wanted to see Trump get over the line and become President because Hillary Clinton was set to install a no-fly-zone in Syria, overthrow the Syrian Government and let the entire Middle-East go up in flames. Provided of course she could get through Russia first, which she wouldn't have - it would have been world war 3 over a stupid gas pipeline made by Qatar.

Thankfully, Trump is unlikely to respond by installing a no-fly-zone in Syria. His desire for good ties with Russia, as well as his desire for an 'America first' agenda means that unilateral action in Syria is unlikely to happen. However, there are options:

1) pressure on Russia to remove Bashar Al-Assad. This would come in the form of refusal to remove economic sanctions on Russia. This would only mean that Bashar Al-Assad would be removed and replaced with another Ba'ath Government figure by Russia, with pressure from the Trump Administration. This decreases the likelihood of Syria being able to remain as one country.

2) Safe zones implemented without the approval of the Syrian Government. This is the most likely response by Trump and the rest of his Administration to what they see as a humanitarian catastrophe. Unfortunately for Trump, safe zones without the approval of the Syrian Government is unlikely to work out.

3) Syria will be balkanized. Rather than allow Bashar Al-Assad to regain control of the entirety of Syria, Trump would let the Syrian Kurds and their democratic allies of the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) hold onto all the territory they have taken off the Islamic State. This would mean that, while the majority of Syria would remain in Bashar Al-Assad's hands, part of Syria would be lost to the Syrian Government either permanently or until Russia replaced Assad with another Ba'ath leader of Syria.


But it is disgusting that Trump would turn his back on a campaign promise to let Russia, Assad and Iran fight ISIS. It is absolutely disgusting that there is not a sensible person in American foreign policy who can clearly see that Bashar Al-Assad is - by far - even having used chemical weapons - the lesser of evils between Al-Qaeda, Al-Qaeda allied rebels, ISIS and the Syrian Government.

That Trump would continue to deal with backward terrorist-kissing countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar - who are well-known for their obvious connections to ISIS - while condemning Bashar Al-Assad for use of chemical weapons is beyond hypocrisy. It is beyond madness.

All it is is disgusting. Every American politician who has wanted to 'fix' Syria by sighting human rights deserves to be hanged.

Assad's moves in Syria

The Syrian Government, spearheaded by the Syrian Arab Army, have largely played a clever game.

Earlier in the war, the enormous city Homs was the priority, which was captured by the Syrian Arab Army in May 2014. Since then, the even larger Aleppo has been the priority, which was captured by the Syrian Arab Army in January 2017.

Now Assad's forces are moving from strength to strength, getting stronger and stronger against their plethora of enemies. Just recently the Syrian Arab Army moved into rebel-held districts of Damascus after the rebels rejected an offer to move to Idlib.

Against the rebels, Idlib is likely to be the last area of advance for the Syrian Arab Army. Until then, Assad's forces are going to mop up all other smaller areas in which the rebels are holed up. These include the provinces of Aleppo, Damascus, Latakia, Hama, Homs and Dera'a. Once these areas are cleared by the Syrian Arab Army, they will then turn to deal with rebels in Idlib.

Against ISIS, Assad is playing a clever game. For a while, Assad has prioritized other rebels over ISIS (as America under Obama was attacking ISIS), but now that Trump has shown an openness to work with Assad, Assad is more than happy to give ISIS a thumping.

Also, with the rebels no longer holding major cities or major areas - with the exception of the province and small city of Idlib - Assad is freer to attack ISIS more forcefully.

With help from Russian and American airstrikes, the Syrian Arab Army retook Palmyra again. This was a great victory for Assad's forces. As well as this, Assad has been pushing ISIS back from Aleppo province, with great results. Now Turkish-backed rebels, holding a northern section of the Turkish-Syrian border - from Dabiq in the west to Jarabulus in the east to Al-Bab in the south - are unable to advance south without crossing fire with Syria and Russia. The only way the Turkish forces may advance to Raqqa is through the Kurds, which are backed by America. All in all, Turkish forces are hemmed in northern Syria, which is very clever for Assad.

However it is unlikely that Assad will push on into Raqqa province to take it back from ISIS. The reason for this is 1, Trump's Kurdish force are already putting enough pressure on Raqqa; 2, the Government-held city of Deir Ez-Zor is besieged by ISIS' forces. Rather than pushing into Raqqa, it is rather likely that the Syrian Arab Army will move sizeable amounts of its forces into (southern) Homs and Deir Ez-Zor provinces, to push ISIS out of the Syrian oilfields and connect the city of Deir Ez-Zor with the rest of Syria. This would create sizable results for the Syrian Government and reestablish Assad's Government as controlling the majority of Syria.

All in all, Assad's victory in the Syrian Civil War is all but certain. The likely next steps are ISIS defeat in Deir Ez-Zor and rebel defeat in every province but Idlib.