Is a rift forming between Turkey and the US?

Is a rift forming between Turkey and the US? Of course there is. But this rift did not start with Trump - it can be traced back to the Obama years.

In the Obama years, Turkey put itself on the line by funding and training jihadists to fight against the Syrian Government. Due to a sequence of events, the Turkish project completely failed.

Turkey wanted a Muslim Brotherhood state in Syria as it wants in Libya. But Obama refused to intervene militarily against Assad and, as long as Obama was unwilling to do that and Russia was, Assad would never be overthrown.

What made things even worse for Turkey was Obama's entry into the Syrian Civil War against ISIS. This weakened the Opposition considerably, as most of the Opposition's territory, having fallen to ISIS, ended up in Kurdish hands instead. When Obama waged war on ISIS, he did so using the YPG in Syria, which is a sister organisation to PKK, the Kurdish group which has been warring against Turkey for decades.

Enter Russia. Suddenly there was no way that Turkish-backed rebels were going to oust Assad. Turkey blew up two Russian jets in utter frustration at having so completely lost the Syrian Civil War at all levels.

Not only had Turkey lost a lot more than it gained in Syria, but the Kurds were about to control the entirety of the Syrian-Turkish border. All its efforts resulted in Assad remaining in power, with a likely semi-autonomous Kurdish region in Syria paralleling the one in Iraq. And that Syrian Kurdish region headed by PKK's sister organisation.

So Turkey did the only thing it could do: repair ties with Russia and accept that Assad would stay in power. Russia, unlike America, has a clear vision for Syria: Assad remaining in power to end ISIS' and Al-Qaeda's presence in the country. Turkey got in with Russia, Syria and Iran - and that perhaps with an understanding that Turkey would be allowed to strike the Kurds in Syria.

What happens to the Kurds in Syria is a question up for discussion. Will Assad allow them to remain semi-autonomous? Will they have to give back their land to Assad? Will Turkey, Russia, Assad and Iran turn on the Kurds as part of an arrangement between Turkey and Russia?

With the Syrian Kurds making an assault upon Raqqa as we speak, Trump has cast his lot in with the the Kurds in the fight against ISIS. The result of this is that, once the Syrian Civil War is over, Turkish-American relations are likely to further deteriorate, perhaps to the point of war between the Kurds and the Turks.

If America install a "no-fly-zone" in northern Syria - a possibility - things could get very messy: Syrian Kurds end up semi-autonomous, Syria, Russia and Iran feel outraged, Turkey cuts all ties with America.

I think that, whether war breaks out between Turkey and the Syrian Kurds or not, Turkish-American relations are set to plummet to new depths. It may even cause Turkey to be withdrawn from NATO. It will likely force America to look to its more US-dependent allies - like Iraq and Afghanistan - to fill the void where Turkey used to be.

This will give Trump more reason to prioritize stability in Iraq and Afghanistan: a need for allies in an increasingly anti-American Middle-East.