Tuesday, 11 April 2017
Trump says "We are not going into Syria"
Phew. That was close.
We received word that Trump launched a missile strike targeting the Syrian airport from which supposed chemical weapons were launched. Never mind they had no proof; Trump wanted to show that with a red line like chemical weapons, he would react.
As of now, he does not want to go into Syria. But should the rebels stage a false flag and convince Trump it was the Syrian Government, America may do another attack. And that is terrifying.
Yet it is reassuring that Trump only struck the airport. He had the element of surprise, and could have very easily struck Bashar Al-Assad's palace. But he didn't. And for that he deserves credit.
However, Trump's Syria policy now looks not much better than Obama's - though, to be fair, it still is better than Obama's. To Trump's credit, he still won't support the Syrian rebels. But while he wants to defeat ISIS, he still wants to keep political pressure on Assad.
The latter policy is disappointing.
What do I think will happen? Assad will stay in power in Syria indefinitely. There is nothing Trump will do to remove him. If another chemical weapons attack happens, there will be a thorough investigation before another strike on Assad.
I do believe that Trump will focus more on the other conflicts in the Middle-East than he will on Syria. He is unlikely to go into Yemen against the Houthis, though he will still go against Al-Qaeda in Yemen. He will also - thankfully - continue to ignore Libya as it falls under Russian influence. He will push for stability in Iraq and in Syria as higher priority for his Administration than Libya, or than regime change in Syria. He will also go back into Afghanistan in full-force after defeating ISIS in Iraq and Syria.
However, Trump will make his safe zones in Syria. And that is probably where his largest danger lies.
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