Playing with Scorpions: Turkey and the Syrian rebels

Every nation that plays with scorpions gets stung by them.

Since the fall of the Shah of Iran, jihadist rebels have been the US' main proxy force in the Middle-East. In the 1980's, the US helped fund the mujahideen to overthrow the Communist regime in Afghanistan. During the Arab Spring, jihadist rebels were used in the wars in Libya and Syria to defeat regime forces.

But during each of these wars the jihadist rebels ended up turning on their main backer - the United States - and her allied nations. Funding the mujahideen in Afghanistan was largely responsible for 9-11 and directly resulted in the rise of Al-Qaeda and Osama Bin Laden. The Taliban, the regime dominant in Afghanistan from the 1990's until now, allied with Al-Qaeda and turned its weapons on neighbouring Pakistan, who largely smuggled rebels next door.

But Libya and Syria in the early 2010's were a particularly worrying combination. After the overthrow of Moammar Al-Qaddafi, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton organised the plunder of Libya and sent Qaddafi's large munitions reserves and jihadist rebels from Libya into Syria, via Turkey. This resulted in an increasing amount of bloodshed in Syria and also contributed to the drastic rise of ISIS in neighbouring Iraq, next door. To borrow a phrase from Syrian president Bashar Al-Assad, "Terrorism is like a scorpion, if you put it in your pocket, it will sting you."

For Turkey, the worst may be yet to come. Since the Russian intervention in 2015, Syrian rebels have been defeated, province by province, and moved into Idlib, a Syrian province bordering Turkey. As Russian, Iranian and Syrian forces defeat the rebels in Idlib, more and more of these rebels are finding themselves in Turkey. The attempted coup in 2016 against Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan highlights the level of instability faced by Turkey through its support of jihadist rebels.

But intriguingly, Turkey has decided to double down on its jihadist approach. It has decided not to turn on the Syrian rebels within its own borders and is, instead, using the Syrian rebels to further its own geostrategic aims. This has largely nullified the jihadist threat to Turkey - at least for now.

Turkey has been using the rebels to invade Kurdish-controlled areas in Syria, greatly weakening the United States' influence there. But once Russia has liberated the remaining half of Idlib from Syrian rebels and once the United States has withdrawn its troops from eastern Syria, Russia and Syria will not tolerate the remaining Syrian rebel presence in Kurdish areas, and will move to push Turkey out of Syria.

Fortunately for Turkey, the arrangement in Syria has not been one-sided. Both Presidents Putin and Erdogan have their own strategies involving compromise in Syria for larger geostrategic goals. For Russia, Turkish cooperation in Syria means that Turkey will have a freer hand in intervening in both Libya and Yemen. These interventions give the defeated rebels another destination that doesn't involve instability in Turkey from Syria.

For the United States, turning a blind eye to Turkish malevolence in Libya and Yemen has distinct advantages. Jihadist rebels used in Libya not only increases the likelihood for stability in Turkey; it also means that, although Israel would lose an Arab ally in Haftar, Egypt would be forced to remain dependent on the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Israel in the face of a Libya strongly supported by Turkey.

In Yemen, Turkey-backed rebels from Syria and Libya would very likely take Sana'a from the Houthis, which would give the US a key win over Iran in the region. Even in the likelihood that the rebels would turn on the UAE in Southern Yemen and, as in Libya, weaken Arab autocracy, the UAE and Saudi Arabia would be forced more than ever to back US interests in Iraq and help drive Iran out of Iraq for good.

However, there is one major problem for the United States in letting Libya and Yemen fall into Turkish hands. Even should the US gain more hegemony in driving Iraq away from Iran, Saudi Arabia would be very likely to erupt in instability, pitting the rebels Saudi Arabia once funded in Syria against its own Mohammed Bin Salman. In the ensuing chaos, Saudi Arabia would become as unrecognizable as Syria has been, and the US and Israel in particular would see the true colours of Turkey at last.