When will Trump leave Syria?

Syria is a complex crisis.

In the campaign, Trump stated he would 'bomb the s*** out of ISIS,' that he was a fan of the Kurds, that he would 'let Russia fight ISIS' in Syria, and largely Trump has lived up to his campaign rhetoric - with added bombings of the Syrian Government.

Trump has accelerated Obama's bombing campaign against ISIS and has largely used the Kurds to achieve his objectives in Syria. He has welcomed Russia's 'de-confliction zones' initiative, which has freed the Syrian Arab Army to overwhelmingly fight ISIS rather than the rebels in Idlib. While the Syrian Arab Army is stronger than ever as a result of this, ISIS' presence in Syria is weaker than ever.

Why, then, has Trump bombed the Syrian government in the past? Well, one reason would be that the Washington Swamp has been mercilessly targeting Trump no matter what he does, and bombing the Syrian air base near Khan Sheikhoun and changing rhetoric to 'Assad must go' has meant that the Swamp has backed off, albeit only a little.

The other reason Trump has bombed the Syrian government has been to direct the Syrian Arab Army and allies towards ISIS rather than towards US-backed rebels. Obama did the reverse of this during his Presidency: bombed ISIS to target the Syrian Arab Army rather than the Iraqi Army or the Kurdish militias. So far, Trump's strategy has been working - the Syrian Arab Army has been overwhelmingly fighting ISIS and not the Kurds or the Free Syrian Army - but it has risked further confrontation between the US and Russia.

The question that many US citizens are wondering is this: when will Trump leave Syria? The answer is that Trump is likely to leave Syria after a political settlement has been reached through the Astana and Geneva talks. This will mean that Trump will likely leave Syria after either Assad has left office, new Syrian elections are run or the Kurds break away from Syria.

Now, should Assad be forced to leave office, Syrians would overwhelmingly protest for him to return to power, leaving the US and its partners humiliated. Should new Syrian elections take place, most Syrians would write Bashar Al-Assad on their ballots, which would equally humiliate the US and its partners. The third possibility, therefore, is more likely: Assad will remain in control of the majority of Syria, but the Kurds vote for independence from Syria.

This raises concerns of further conflict in Syria, a complete deterioration of Turkish-US relations, or outright defeat of the Kurds by the Syrian Arab Army. Any one of these scenarios would further humiliate the US and their partners.

Ideally, Trump should withdraw his forces from Syria after Raqqa has been seized by the Kurds. With ISIS destroyed from Syria, there is no benefit for the US in remaining there.