As Syria stabilizes, the Gulf is destabilizing

As Syria stabilizes, the Gulf is destabilizing.

Much of the investment from the Gulf countries was bent on the overthrow of Bashar Al-Assad, to benefit Qatar in forming a pipeline through the region, bankrupt Russia and usher in a golden age of fossil fuel production for the Arabian Gulf. The overthrow of Bashar Al-Assad would have enabled the Gulf to become more wealthy than ever before after isolating Russia economically through the Qatari gas pipeline.

It is no surprise, therefore, that Russia would willingly risk its economy to stabilize Syria. The US certainly was not prepared to overthrow Assad and, without US support, neither were her allies.

Russia has launched an historic campaign which is reversing the tide of extremism in much of the Middle-East. Their Syrian campaign has caused the most enormous and permanent defeats for Al-Qaeda and ISIS since the beginning of the war on terror in 2001. Once again, as in world war 2, Russia has saved the world from a deadly enemy.

As a result, the Gulf is starting to show signs of destabilization. First was the Gulf's ambitious campaign against the Houthis in Yemen. Next has been the crackdown on Shi'ite protesters in the Gulf, such as the Saudi government's siege on the hometown of Sheikh Nimr An-Nimr and the arrests made against Shi'ite Arabs in Bahrain.

But things reached a new level of destabilization when days ago Qatar was politically isolated by its closest allies in the GCC. This has been as a result of Qatar funding of terrorism and spreading terrorist ideologies in its Al-Jazeera media coverage of the Arab Spring. Wherever there is a terror organisation, you can be sure that Qatar's money is behind them, such as with the Taliban, ISIS, Al-Qaeda, the Muslim Brotherhood and even Shi'ite groups like Hezbollah.

Qatar has greatly annoyed the rest of the Arabian Gulf.

It is commendable that Saudi Arabia has led the isolation efforts towards Qatar. However, most of the benefits to be found in isolating Qatar are wasted by Saudi Arabia engaging in the Yemeni conflict: Saudi has created an Al-Qaeda safe haven right on their doorstep, and that will continue even if Qatar stops funding terrorism.


The main reason that instability is coming to the Gulf is their unstable neighbour Iraq. Iraq is the volcano from which gushes out instability. This is the most significant reason for the barbarism seen in the Syrian Civil War: the chaos from Iraq arrived in Syria, and this is provable by just how rapid Syrian rebel groups fell to ISIS, which is the terrorist organisation that came out of Iraq.

With Syria stabilized and its people unwilling to continue the fighting; with Jordanian king Abdullah too clever to be tricked by instability into doing anything rash; with Iran too strong for instability to reach its borders, the only place left for the Iraqi volcano to gush instability towards is south: to the Arabian Gulf.

What comes next with the Qatar-Gulf crisis is difficult to guess, but it could easily escalate. Most experts believe that sanctions will not go on Qatar, nor will there be an invasion. While it is difficult to see an implementation of sanctions, it is possible that Qatar will experience a regime change, or an annexation by Saudi Arabia. If the Saudis made one foolish error in Yemen, they may do another in Qatar.

Such a move - which, as it is, might be the only way to shut down Qatar's trouble making and meddling in the region - has the potential to flare up tensions in the Gulf, start protests and even trigger an ISIS uprising. Should Qataris protest Saudi occupation or regime change, ordinary Sunni Gulf Arabs may come to their aid, plunging the whole region into a war unlike anything we have seen until now.

This would mean that, as ISIS is being driven out of the Syrian provinces of Aleppo, Hama, Homs and Deir Ez-Zor, it would find a new place to spread its instability and chaos in the Arabian Gulf.

Perhaps Syria has a year left before its war is over. After that, expect things to change radically in the Arabian Gulf.