Turkey's bold gamble

President Erdogan is threatening war with the United States' backed Kurds "in a matter of days."

The risks are high for Turkey in carrying out an offensive, but they are much higher if they do not. The YPG is the Syrian arm of the PKK, whose purpose is to bring down the Turkish government, allow the Kurds to break from Turkey and create their own state. If Turkey does not carry out this offensive, they will be left with an insurgency that stretches over the majority of their southern border.

It is entirely possible that in the Astana talks, the condition for the Russians and Iranians halting an advance on Idlib was a military incursion by Turkey into part of north-eastern Syria, held by the Kurds and the US. Though the terrorist hoard in Idlib poses grave security threats to Russia, Iran and Syria, a US/Kurdish presence in Syria poses an existential threat to Turkey, Iran and Syria. For Turkey, the threat is more immediate and military in nature; for Iran and Syria, the threat is financial, not military. North-eastern Syria holds much of Syria's oil - should Syria and Iran fail to obtain this oil, both economies will be doomed to break - something the US is counting on in its Iran containment policy.

But Russia - with the help of Turkey, Iran and Syria - holds almost all of the cards in Syria. This is why the offensive on Idlib has stalled in favour of a Turkish offensive in north-eastern Syria: Idlib will inevitably fall back into Syrian government hands, but not before Turkey tears territorial gains from the US and YPG for its own use.

https://ahvalnews.com/turkey-syria/turkey-will-carry-out-military-offensive-ne-syria-expert-says

According to an expert on Ahval news, should Erdogan go ahead with his military offensive, the likely target is Tel Abyad. Unlike Kobane or Qamishli, the population in the area surrounding Tel Abyad is 80% Arab, does not have much of a US presence and additionally would split the two YPG-held Kurdish enclaves in half: Kobane and Qamishli. It is a powder keg which would either result in complete Kurdish and US capitulation, or a bitter fight which would destroy Turkish-US ties.

https://www.tolonews.com/business/first-export-shipment-set-lapis-lazuli-route

What is worse for the US is Turkey has just agreed to being a major player in a new economic corridor for Afghanistan. The Lapiz Lazuli route will see large portions of Afghan goods pass through Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Georgia to Turkey, and from Turkey onwards to Europe. This is geostrategy at its best: Turkey helping the US where they need it more - Afghanistan - then threaten their interests we're they need it less - Syria.

Ironically, Turkey is helping Trump supporters who have long complained about being stuck in Syria and want the United States to withdraw. To a large percentage of supporters, President Trump's Syria policy betrays the America First slogan he ran on. Should Turkey force the United States to withdraw from Syria, such a rebuke will force the Trump Administration to better calculate their foreign policy in the future.