Turkish invasion into Kurdish Afrin just the beginning

Today, Turkey launched the long-anticipated operation into the northwestern Syrian province of Afrin, a small part of the enormous territory held by the Syrian Kurds. But this operation is just the beginning of larger scaled operations in northern Syria by the Turkish military.

The Syrian Kurds greatly threaten President Erdogan's hold over Turkey, so much so that, with the entry of Russia into the war, President Erdogan has been forced into recalculating his Syrian policy. Though publicly denouncing Bashar Al-Assad and demanding his removal from office, privately, Turkish opposition to Assad has softened considerably.

https://sputniknews.com/politics/201701281050105764-turkey-syria-russia-iran/

Today, it is US policy, not Russian policy, that directly threatens Turkish interest in the region, and that because the US is funding the Syrian Kurds after the destruction of ISIS in Syria. Though Bashar Al-Assad is secular and not Islamist, he leads the Syrian Arab Republic, which favours the Arabs over the Kurds. But the US-supported "Syrian Democratic Forces" are largely Kurdish, and many of these fighters are allied to the YPG, which has been waging war against the Turkish government for decades.

Sentiment in Turkey is perhaps best expressed by MP Metin Kulunk: "Syria will become a second Vietnam for the US." This sentiment will likely embolden President Erdogan into not only launching an invasion of Afrin, but also to take control of Manbij and force the Syrian Kurds to the eastern side of the Euphrates River.

https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201711161059157430-syria-second-vietnam-for-us/

Turkish ambition may not be limited to west of the Euphrates, either. Neither Russia, Syria nor Iran are thrilled with a long-term US presence in northeastern Syria. They see, rightly, that this undermines the territorial sovereignty of Syria, but any attacks on the northeastern enclave by Russia, Syria or Iran would be seen as an act of war on the US.

Turkey, on the other hand, is a NATO ally. Turkish occupation of territory controlled by the Syrian Kurds, though further damaging US-Turkish relations, would hardly result in a conflict between the two nations. It would force the US into abandoning the Syrian Kurds and making an exit strategy from Syria, which is a shared goal of Russia, Syria, Iran and Turkey.

As the Turks seek to remove the US-Kurdish presence from Syria, this may give Russia, the Syrian government and Iran the green light they need to invade the rebel-held province of Idlib. Idlib is largely under the control of Al-Qaeda, but has also served as a dumping ground for rebels from other regions in Syria. With the US-Kurdish threat to Turkey and Syria removed, Russia, Syria, Turkey and Iran would be able to quietly negotiate for the Syrian government to militarily recapture Idlib.

Such an outcome would mean that the US would be humiliated for its ambitions in Syria, and Turkish control of Kurdish Syria would help Turkey save face for having lost Al-Qaeda-held Idlib to the Syrian government. With Turkey firmly controlling northern Syria and the rest of Syria in the hands of Bashar Al-Assad, no further roadblocks would exist for Turkey, Russia, Syria and Iran to seriously negotiate a political settlement for the ending of the Syrian civil war.