Operation "Great Dawn" - the end of ISIS in Homs and Deir Ez-Zor

The Syrian Arab Army has just launched an enormous offensive against ISIS around Palmyra called Operation "Great Dawn," and it will signal the end of ISIS in Homs and Deir Ez-Zor provinces.

Operation "Great Dawn" is the largest offensive by the Syrian Arab Army against ISIS for the entirety of the Syrian Civil War. It has been made possible by the inter-Syrian talks in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, in which de-escalation zones were agreed upon, freeing up Syrian Arab Army from fighting Al-Qaeda and their affiliates to focus on fighting ISIS.

The impact of this operation is comparable to the Battle of Aleppo in importance: it will solidify Bashar Al-Assad's control of the majority of Syrian territory and will rescue the besieged city of Deir Ez-Zor from ISIS' hands.

Already ISIS have lost 3000 square kilometers in the space of 48 hours. This goes to show that the Syrian Arab Army, when not besieged by Al-Qaeda, are more than a match for ISIS in Syria.

In the next few weeks of bitter fighting, expect the Syrian Arab Army to regain control of the entirety of the Homs and Deir Ez-Zor countryside, shrinking ISIS' so called Caliphate by 50%. Also expect that the US-backed Syrian rebels fighting ISIS will be cut off from reaching their objective on the Iraqi border.

ISIS will likely be forced into the Raqqa countryside, where they will fight to the bitter end of their Caliphate. This will create more problems for the Syrian Democratic Forces, who have so far had an easy fight against ISIS by letting their fighters out of Raqqa to fight the Syrian Arab Army in Homs and Deir Ez-Zor. But with the Syrian Arab Army out in full-force against ISIS in Homs and Deir Ez-Zor, ISIS will likely retreat to the Raqqa countryside, as battling the Kurds will be easier than battling the Syrian Arab Army.

The conclusion of the operation will likely cut ISIS' Caliphate in half, separating the Syrian and Iraqi halves from each other. This blow will be detrimental to the legitimacy of ISIS, and likely force Caliph Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi from Syria back into Iraq.

Assad's forces move east

It looks like my earlier predictions were right after all.

The next big push by the Syrian Arab Army is headed for Deir Ez-Zor, the city which has been besieged for the last 3 years by ISIS. It is the Syrian city farthest to the east, and is currently separated by ISIS-controlled desert.

While an attack on Raqqa or Idlib would be perhaps easier geographically for Assad's forces, financially speaking, driving east has serious benefits; the main one is oil and gas in Homs and Deir Ez-Zor provinces. Once Assad liberate those provinces from ISIS, the terror state will be enormously crippled.

The benefit of gaining ground in Deir Ez-Zor is akin to the benefit of controlling the city of Aleppo: Syria would be unable to be divided by foreign powers. Had Aleppo fallen to the rebels, a second country may have been formed - with Aleppo retaken by Assad, there is a possible backup plan by western powers to divide Syria east from west. Taking back Deir Ez-Zor would destroy that idea entirely.

Taking back Deir Ez-Zor would give Assad more legitimacy in controlling Syria, as he would then control the majority of Syrian territory and resources. He is currently solidifying control of Palmyra, and preparing the way for the big push east through the Homs province and towards Deir Ez-Zor. I believe this coming stage of the conflict will see enormous progress on destroying ISIS in Syria and ending the civil war.

Is a rift forming between Turkey and the US?

Is a rift forming between Turkey and the US? Of course there is. But this rift did not start with Trump - it can be traced back to the Obama years.

In the Obama years, Turkey put itself on the line by funding and training jihadists to fight against the Syrian Government. Due to a sequence of events, the Turkish project completely failed.

Turkey wanted a Muslim Brotherhood state in Syria as it wants in Libya. But Obama refused to intervene militarily against Assad and, as long as Obama was unwilling to do that and Russia was, Assad would never be overthrown.

What made things even worse for Turkey was Obama's entry into the Syrian Civil War against ISIS. This weakened the Opposition considerably, as most of the Opposition's territory, having fallen to ISIS, ended up in Kurdish hands instead. When Obama waged war on ISIS, he did so using the YPG in Syria, which is a sister organisation to PKK, the Kurdish group which has been warring against Turkey for decades.

Enter Russia. Suddenly there was no way that Turkish-backed rebels were going to oust Assad. Turkey blew up two Russian jets in utter frustration at having so completely lost the Syrian Civil War at all levels.

Not only had Turkey lost a lot more than it gained in Syria, but the Kurds were about to control the entirety of the Syrian-Turkish border. All its efforts resulted in Assad remaining in power, with a likely semi-autonomous Kurdish region in Syria paralleling the one in Iraq. And that Syrian Kurdish region headed by PKK's sister organisation.

So Turkey did the only thing it could do: repair ties with Russia and accept that Assad would stay in power. Russia, unlike America, has a clear vision for Syria: Assad remaining in power to end ISIS' and Al-Qaeda's presence in the country. Turkey got in with Russia, Syria and Iran - and that perhaps with an understanding that Turkey would be allowed to strike the Kurds in Syria.

What happens to the Kurds in Syria is a question up for discussion. Will Assad allow them to remain semi-autonomous? Will they have to give back their land to Assad? Will Turkey, Russia, Assad and Iran turn on the Kurds as part of an arrangement between Turkey and Russia?

With the Syrian Kurds making an assault upon Raqqa as we speak, Trump has cast his lot in with the the Kurds in the fight against ISIS. The result of this is that, once the Syrian Civil War is over, Turkish-American relations are likely to further deteriorate, perhaps to the point of war between the Kurds and the Turks.

If America install a "no-fly-zone" in northern Syria - a possibility - things could get very messy: Syrian Kurds end up semi-autonomous, Syria, Russia and Iran feel outraged, Turkey cuts all ties with America.

I think that, whether war breaks out between Turkey and the Syrian Kurds or not, Turkish-American relations are set to plummet to new depths. It may even cause Turkey to be withdrawn from NATO. It will likely force America to look to its more US-dependent allies - like Iraq and Afghanistan - to fill the void where Turkey used to be.

This will give Trump more reason to prioritize stability in Iraq and Afghanistan: a need for allies in an increasingly anti-American Middle-East.