Thursday, 26 January 2017

How Trump might implement Safe Zones in Syria



Trump and former democratic Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton had very, very different views on Syria.

While Hillary Clinton wanted to wage war with Russia by installing a 'no-fly-zone' in Syria, Trump's own vision for Syria involves cooperation with the parties on the ground to end the threat of ISIS once and for all.

Trump asked the military for a secret plan to be presented to him in 30 days, one to destroy ISIS. His plan for Iraq is clear: ousting ISIS from Iraq (namely Mosul, Hawija and western Anbar province) and protecting Iraqi oil so their economy can recover. Pledging 'strong and firm support' to Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi, Trump has not changed his mind.

His plan for Syria is made more complex by the dynamics on the ground. On the one hand, Trump could theoretically hand ISIS in Syria over to Russia, Turkey, Syria and Iran more fully and withdraw from the conflict. However, ISIS in Syria represents a tantamount threat to Iraq, so there is the likelihood Trump will obliterate ISIS in Syria as well.

Should American forces take control of previously held ISIS territory in the provinces of Deir Ez-Zor, Raqqa, Aleppo and Homs, they would be able to transform those territories into safe zones for Syrian refugees. Ironically, ISIS-held territory would become refugee territory.

After the establishment of safe zones in Syria - with expected coerced funding from the Gulf states - Trump would be able to withdraw his forces from Syria and hand over the safe zones to the watchful eye of Turkey, Russia and Syria.

It is within Trump's interest to end American presence in Syria as soon as possible. This is one way he may decide to do that

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