Monday, 12 December 2016

Where would Syrian rebels go after defeated in Idlib?

The Syrian Civil War is reaching its final years. With Trump ending the anti-Assad rhetoric of 'Assad must go' and planning on working together with Russia to defeat ISIS, it is very unlikely Trump will fund rebels in Syria.

Rebels in Aleppo are fleeing - they are either returning home and laying down their weapons, or they are fleeing to Idlib; perhaps some are even fleeing to ISIS territory.

With the Trump Administration wishing to work together with Vladimir Putin in Syria to destroy ISIS, Assad would be unlikely to drive rebels out of Idlib after driving them out of Aleppo. Trump, promising Assad to stay, would need his army to butcher ISIS in Deir Ez-Zor and Raqqa, with the cover of American AND Russian airstrikes, ending ISIS for good in Syria.

But after that - when America leaves the Syrian Government in control of previously ISIS-held areas - Assad's might would hammer away at Idlib, ending the Syrian Civil War.

This could all happen within the first year of the Trump Administration.

So, after this year or so, where would the rebels in Idlib go? Well, Turkey, obviously, but where to after that? Would they all return home? Some would undoubtedly turn home.

However, it seems likely that many would be given the opportunity to evacuate from Turkey to fight jihad in Libya. The current Government of National Salvation in Libya has elements of Islamism in their ranks, meaning it wouldn't be hard to get Al-Qaeda Syrian rebels from Turkey to Libya.

I say this because some of the foreign Syrian rebels were initially rebels in Libya against the Gidaffi regime. They even looted Gidaffi's weaponry and took it to Syria to wage against Bashar Al-Assad.

Having lost in Syria, the rebels would mean to hold onto their last victory with fervour: in Libya. This strategy was also employed before by Al-Qaeda in Iraq during the Bush Administration: distract the Americans by fighting them in Iraq rather than elsewhere.

The test would be to see whether or not Trump would buy the distraction as Bush did. Trump, in all likelihood, would not, given his statements about stability being more important than the 'nation building business,' in which Bush was so heavily invested. Instead, Trump would continue the Russio-American alliance against radical Islam established in Syria and use it to great effect in Libya, installing Haftar Al-Khalifa as President there.

But where would they flee after that? Either back home, or those undaunted might go to the areas of heavy stability, which I predict will end up being Afghanistan, Yemen and Saudi Arabia.

The war on terror has long been fought on the wrong side: destroying stability to give terrorists safe havens. I look forward to Trump starting to put America on the right side of the war on terror.

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