Siege of Deir Ezzor ended

Finally, the siege of Deir Ezzor by ISIS is at an end.

In a matter of months, the Syrian Arab Army has regained enormous swathes of territory from ISIS, from eastern Aleppo to As-Suknah to Deir Ezzor. ISIS now only exists in Syria in Raqqa, the countryside of Deir Ezzor and in the hearts and minds of those who experienced ISIS' tyrannical rule.

There is another half of the Deir Ezzor city to liberate. After that, the Syrian Arab Army is likely to drive ISIS to the eastern bank of the Euphrates River, before finally finishing off the terror organisation for good in Syria.

After regaining control of Deir Ezzor and after the Syrian Kurds have liberated the city of Raqqa, it is unlikely that ISIS will ever return to Syria in territorial form. ISIS will focus on Iraq and the Arabian Gulf, and Syria will have time to recover from the horrors of its civil war.

ISIS offering stiff resistance in Raqqa, crumbling everywhere else

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-raqqa-idUSKBN1AQ1C2

The Syrian Kurdish Commander of the YPG and Syrian Democratic Forces expects that a long battle is to be expected to take Raqqa city from ISIS.

The Syrian Democratic Forces have surrounded the city of Raqqa and have made retreat impossible for ISIS from the city. Though pundits expected the city to fall quickly, ISIS is fighting tooth and nail for every street and building, just as they did in Mosul.

Meanwhile, Syrian Arab Army gains against ISIS are steadily increasing. Areas to north and east of As-Sukhnah are being cleared out, and the current momentum suggests ISIS may be cleared out of Syria by the end of the year.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/deir-ezzor-mother-battles-july-25-2017-video-map-update/

Unlike in Iraq, once ISIS is driven out of Syria, it is unlikely to return, provided Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad and his government remain in power. By the end of the year, ISIS is likely to withdraw from eastern Syria back into western Iraq, to launch its next phase: provoking instability in the Arabian Gulf, south of Iraq.

Further concerns are what will happen in Syria should ISIS be defeated, and whether war between the Kurds, Turkey and Syria will break out. In any case, it may be that, with no ISIS in Syria in the future, US military will have no choice but to withdraw:

http://www.newsweek.com/russia-military-force-us-out-syria-army-official-640650

After the war, it is likely Bashar Al-Assad will continue to rebuild his country, with Iranian, Russian, Chinese and Qatari financial assistance - and watch as the terror organization which once plagued his country would be now plaguing the Arabian Gulf. Assad is likely to rule over the nation until the day he dies.

Syrian Arab Army reaches As-Suknah, last fortress before Deir Ez-Zor

For the Syrian Arab Army, the most important victory since Aleppo is within reach.

After securing Aleppo city from Al-Qaeda insurgents, deescalation zones were established between the Syrian Arab Army and the rebels in western Syria. The result has been the bulk of the Syrian Arab Army has been freed up to fight ISIS in Eastern Syria and rescue Deir Ez-Zor city.

Since the beginning of Operation Great Dawn, remarkable success has been made by the Syrian Arab Army against ISIS. The Syrian Arab Army has regained all lost territory in the eastern Aleppo countryside and has forced ISIS out of the majority of Raqqa province, reaching Deir Ez-Zor province for the first time in many years just days ago.

The key battles for control of eastern Syria are currently taking place in the Homs governate. First of such battles was liberating the Palmyra-Damascus highway; second was the liberation of Arak. The third and final battle on the Homs-Deir Ez-Zor highway is As-Sukhnah.

After As-Sukhnah, the last sizable town before Deir Ez-Zor will be taken. ISIS will completely crumble in Syria and be forced east of Deir Ez-Zor city.

Because of this, ISIS are currently fighting tooth and nail to hold As-Sukhnah. Conscription for all males between 20 and 30 have been legislated by ISIS, which will add to the manpower required to hold As-Sukhnah. ISIS have realised that unless they hold As-Sukhnah, their Caliphate will be destroyed.

For the Syrian Arab Army, As-Sukhnah is a great prize on the road to restoring Syrian sovereignty. After linking Deir Ez-Zor city with the rest of government-controlled Syria, no questions will remain about the legitimacy of Bashar Al-Assad's government.

US continues to ignore Russian success in Syria

The uncomfortable truth about the Syrian Civil War is that Russia is helping to end it.

When the Arab Spring first began in 2011 in Syria, protests were quickly absorbed into an armed conflict between Syrian Sunnis from the countryside, backed by Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, and the rest of Syria, backing Bashar Al-Assad. The reason why Bashar Al-Assad never fell in the 6 years of conflict is because he is too popular with Syrians.

Since 2011, Assad's Syrian Arab Army have maintained a presence in all major cities in Syria except Raqqa in 2014 and Idlib in 2015. Even the inhabitants of Deir Ez-Zor city, populated by Syrian Bedouins, who are normally more receptive to ISIS, have remained allied to Bashar Al-Assad for the entirety of the war.

When rebels started making larger gains against the Syrian government in western Syria, Bashar Al-Assad called on Russia to assist his government in regaining control of Syria. Russia's accomplishments in almost 2 years have been more profound than US gains in Afghanistan and Iraq over the last 15 years.

The Russians learned from the US' mistake in Iraq: regime change leads to terrorism. The Russians, therefore, decided that the antidote to terrorism would be to do an "Iraq War in reverse": strengthen an existing regime, rather than change it. And it has worked.

Since the Russians have entered the Syrian Civil War, the city of Aleppo has been stabilized. Many of the rebels previously holed up in other Syrian areas have been moved into the rebel-held province of Idlib. And, more recently, deconfliction zones were established to enable the Syrian Arab Army to focus more heavily on ISIS than the other rebels. This has resulted in the Syrian Government regaining vast swathes of countryside in Aleppo, Homs and Damascus provinces.

The US has been silent on this. The chemical attacks earlier this year - neither proven nor unproven to be initiated by the Syrian Government - led President Donald Trump to order an airstrike on a Syrian airbase - the first time the US intentionally launched a military attack on the Syrian Government in the war. And Rex Tillerson, who previously said the Syrians should decide who their President should be, began to call for the overthrow of Bashar Al-Assad.

Of course, the US is highly unlikely to engage militarily to remove the Assad regime in Syria. But it does show an attempt to undermine Russian efforts in Syria and focus the west's attention on its own war on ISIS rather than on Russian success in Syria.

However, should the US not learn from Russian success in Syria, they would be unable to end either the Iraq or Afghan conflicts. And with 20 trillion dollars of debt, the US cannot sustain their current foreign policy.

Tillerson: U.S. ready to let Russia decide on Assad in Syria

https://www.axios.com/u-s-ready-to-let-russia-decide-syria-2452572593.html

This is the best news I've heard all year.

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has announced that the US is ready to let Russia decide on Assad in Syria. This means that previous statements of regime change by members of the Trump Administration, such as H.R. McMaster, have fallen on deaf ears.

Odds are that relations between the US and Russia will depend on whether or not Bashar Al-Assad is removed. But Russia understands that Bashar Al-Assad is a symbol to the Syrian people: a symbol of stability, protection of minority groups, "sticking it" to America by supporting Hezbollah, Hamas and Iran, and a symbol of secular Arabism. Russia stands to benefit more from Assad staying in power, as other countries will trust Russia to defend them, such as Haftar Al-Khalifa in Libya, the Houthis in Yemen and Iran.

So Assad is very likely to remain in Syria for the foreseeable future. This will mean one less country from which Salafi terrorism will come, and will force the US to score significant victories in the war on terror in other areas, such as in Iraq and Afghanistan.

However, this is the worst possible news for the Arabian Gulf. Much of the Arabian Gulf was set to benefit from Bashar Al-Assad being ousted from Syria, and with Assad set to remain in power, the Gulf is set for detonation. ISIS will come to the Arabian Gulf. Shi'ites from the Gulf will be exterminated and driven out. Houthis will win the Yemen war. But, scarily, ISIS may just capture Mecca and Medina.

But today, we can celebrate that terrorism is being meaningfully defeated in Syria. It is worth celebrations for the rest of the year.

Will Trump contain Iran in Syria?

This year has seen enormous advances by the Syrian Arab Army. Firstly, in January, Syria seized the key city of Aleppo. Since then, rebels have been either accepting the open invitation of the government to lay down their arms and rejoin Syrian life, or they have relocated to the province of Idlib, or they have remained, waiting for the Syrian Arab Army to mop them up.

Iran has been using Assad's Syria as part of a Shi'ite crescent from Tehran, Iran's capital, to Beirut, the capital of Lebanon. This crescent is a formidable challenge for the Trump Administration. How does Trump protect Israel if the anti-Israeli Assad government regains control of Syria?

Trump will not protect Israel by overthrowing Assad. Neither will Trump set up a military base in eastern Syria to stop supplies flowing from Iran to Hezbollah. It would take too many men, weapons, allies and money that the US does not currently have in Syria.

More likely is that the US will let the Assad government stay in power, but consolidate air bases in western and north-western Iraq, in the largely Sunni Arab areas. This will do several things. First, it will prevent Iranian weapons from reaching Syria through Iraq, because the US would destroy them on sight. Second, it will prevent Iranian-backed militias from attacking Sunni Arab Iraqis. Third, it will prevent ISIS from returning to Iraq in force, as the US will target them as soon as they are spotted.

Trump will likely contain Iran, but not by battling Iran in Syria, but by working together with the Iraqi government, to curtail Iranian influence there. Like Obama before him, Trump does not want to see the United States get in another quagmire after the two Bush-era quagmires of Afghanistan and Iraq, and unlike in Syria, in Iraq there is support for a continued, minimal US presence.

Afghanistan is the other area which, in the immediate future, will be used to help contain Iran. Afghanistan has an enormous amount of potential resources. Rather than fighting Iran in Syria, Trump is more likely exert pressure to stabilize Afghanistan to make it strong, independent and anti-Iranian. An anti-Iran Afghanistan would go some way to curtailing Iran's dominance in the region.

Trump will also continue to support Saudi Arabia. The US will support the Saudi war on the Houthis - though this is unlikely to benefit anyone in the region, especially Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has additionally shown signs of supporting the Kurds in independence in Syria and Iraq, which would also go a way to containing Iranian influence. However, Trump's hands are tied. If he supports the Kurds too loudly in either Syria or Iraq, he would lose the Iraqi government as an ally. And that would be more disastrous for the US than maintaining the status quo.

All in all, these strategies of containing Iran do not include overthrowing the Assad government in Damascus. This strategy, which is trumpeted so loudly by National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster, is likely to fall on deaf ears, as neither James Mattis nor Trump nor Steve Bannon have any desire to be sucked into the unwinnable quagmire of Syria.

Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen and Kurdish areas are more likely to be utilized by Trump than overthrowing Assad in Syria.

When will Trump leave Syria?

Syria is a complex crisis.

In the campaign, Trump stated he would 'bomb the s*** out of ISIS,' that he was a fan of the Kurds, that he would 'let Russia fight ISIS' in Syria, and largely Trump has lived up to his campaign rhetoric - with added bombings of the Syrian Government.

Trump has accelerated Obama's bombing campaign against ISIS and has largely used the Kurds to achieve his objectives in Syria. He has welcomed Russia's 'de-confliction zones' initiative, which has freed the Syrian Arab Army to overwhelmingly fight ISIS rather than the rebels in Idlib. While the Syrian Arab Army is stronger than ever as a result of this, ISIS' presence in Syria is weaker than ever.

Why, then, has Trump bombed the Syrian government in the past? Well, one reason would be that the Washington Swamp has been mercilessly targeting Trump no matter what he does, and bombing the Syrian air base near Khan Sheikhoun and changing rhetoric to 'Assad must go' has meant that the Swamp has backed off, albeit only a little.

The other reason Trump has bombed the Syrian government has been to direct the Syrian Arab Army and allies towards ISIS rather than towards US-backed rebels. Obama did the reverse of this during his Presidency: bombed ISIS to target the Syrian Arab Army rather than the Iraqi Army or the Kurdish militias. So far, Trump's strategy has been working - the Syrian Arab Army has been overwhelmingly fighting ISIS and not the Kurds or the Free Syrian Army - but it has risked further confrontation between the US and Russia.

The question that many US citizens are wondering is this: when will Trump leave Syria? The answer is that Trump is likely to leave Syria after a political settlement has been reached through the Astana and Geneva talks. This will mean that Trump will likely leave Syria after either Assad has left office, new Syrian elections are run or the Kurds break away from Syria.

Now, should Assad be forced to leave office, Syrians would overwhelmingly protest for him to return to power, leaving the US and its partners humiliated. Should new Syrian elections take place, most Syrians would write Bashar Al-Assad on their ballots, which would equally humiliate the US and its partners. The third possibility, therefore, is more likely: Assad will remain in control of the majority of Syria, but the Kurds vote for independence from Syria.

This raises concerns of further conflict in Syria, a complete deterioration of Turkish-US relations, or outright defeat of the Kurds by the Syrian Arab Army. Any one of these scenarios would further humiliate the US and their partners.

Ideally, Trump should withdraw his forces from Syria after Raqqa has been seized by the Kurds. With ISIS destroyed from Syria, there is no benefit for the US in remaining there.