Wednesday, 12 September 2018

Idlib: the Battle of Berlin in Syria



Turkey, Iran and Russia failed to reach a deal on Idlib's fate earlier in the week in a conference in Tehran.

Iran, Russia and Syria are all poised to throw their might into what will likely be the hardest and bloodiest battle of the war. It will also be the last significant battle in the Syrian civil war.

In this battle, the Syrian Arab Army, backed by the Russian air force and Iran, will seek to clear out Idlib of all "terrorists" left in Syria. These terrorists range from those affiliated with Al-Qaeda and those part of the National Liberation Front, supported by Turkey.

What is likely to happen?

1) Al-Qaeda in Syria will be obliterated. One of the outcomes reached from the Tehran conference was the designation of Hayat Tahrir ash-Sham as a terrorist organization by Turkey. This group, previously affiliated with Al-Qaeda, will therefore receive no protection from anyone on the ground - except perhaps the US, following a chemical attack purported by the Syrian government.

2) Turkey will cooperate closer with Russia and Iran than ever. Though the Idlib operations will strain and test the Astana Peace Process, Turkey is highly unlikely to make good on its threat to withdraw from it. Instead, cooperation will be paramount and more essential than ever.

3) Rebels allied to National Liberation Front may be moved from Idlib to fight another day. Though Hayat Tahrir ash-Sham and Al-Qaeda will be obliterated in Idlib, the rebels who have allied themselves to Turkey and the National Liberation Front may indeed be moved from Idlib to elsewhere in a Turkish-Russian-brokered deal. Either they will go to Turkish-occupied Syria or to Turkey directly. Yet instead of being sent home, these rebels are likely to fight in the next stage of the conflict.

4) War between the United States and Turkey will begin. The differences of policy between Washington and Ankara will be more apparent than ever. For Turkey, it is damage control for a Syria policy gone horribly wrong; for the United States, it will be using the north-eastern part of Syria as a bargaining chip in negotiations with Russia.

With the destruction of Idlib as a deconfliction zone, Turkey would have no choice but to turn on the United States to shore up its position for the end of the Syrian war. In this way, after the battle for Idlib, rebels allied to the National Liberation Front may be used by Turkey to fight the Kurds and the Americans in north-eastern Syria, especially should the Iranians and the Syrians be unable to wage war with the Americans directly.

5) The Americans will be forced out of Syria. After the battle for Idlib, should the Syrians or the Iranians attack across the east of the Euphrates, the United States would not hesitate to decimate their forces as they did to the Russian mercenaries 12 months ago. But the Turks, allied with the remnants of the Syrian Opposition, will not be so easily swayed. Though the United States and Turkey have been allied for decades, their differences over the Kurds in Syria will end their alliance and pit them against each other. Turkey and the United States will go to war with each other in Syria, and the Americans will be forced out - very likely by President Trump himself.

6) Syrians will be especially grateful. Russia taming the Turkish juggernaut to help kick the US out of Syria, while also freeing Idlib from the control of jihadists, will leave Syrians very grateful to Russia for years to come. Idlib is the last part of heavily populated Syria to be in the hands of the Opposition - once Idlib province is retaken, governance will be restored in all major urban areas of Syria and Syria will be rebuilt by Russia, China, Iran and Turkey.